Electric Vehicle Charging/Discharging Models for Estimation of Load Profile in Grid Environments

The increasing electric vehicles (EVs) and their integration with the electrical networks to achieve the charging demands has highly affected the operation of the power system. These effects are due to the increased and variable amount of electricity consumption caused by the irregular charging patterns of EVs. As the EV penetration level increases with such irregular charging patterns, the overall load profile in a network will increase resulting in load peaks. To overcome this, a well-planned charging-discharging algorithm is needed for the EV users and the power suppliers. In light of the above issues and requirements, this paper proposes a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation-based EV charging (EVC) behavior models and charging-discharging power prediction models. The proposed methods analyze the traveling behavior of EVs, and their charging patterns to make EV a flexible load. This helps in understanding the variable electricity consumption and mitigating the peak loads and load variations. Further, to assess the operation of the proposed methods, the charging-discharging power prediction is carried out for a large EV fleet based on the historical data. The power predictions are carried out for 100 days and the convergence of the proposed algorithm is targeted to be kept below 0.5% to achieve optimal power prediction. The results showed the credibility of the proposed approach in identifying the
daily average charging-discharging load curves.